NFL Prop Bets Week 14: Discovering worth in New York's underappreciated vast receivers

Welp, we’re again on observe.

After a shedding Week 11, I took Thanksgiving as an opportunity to step again and use the excuse of the vacation to interrupt up any likelihood of a chilly streak. And, regardless of there being no logic behind it, this labored out.

Final week’s iffy technique of backing the New York Giants paid off, even when they didn’t win. Time beyond regulation helped Daniel Jones hit his overs and, by some means, saved Saquon Barkley at his dashing yard beneath. That capped an 11-1 day solely upended by a fourth quarter Diontae Johnson reception (and boosted, sadly, by Jimmy Garoppolo’s damaged foot).

I’m again to hitting extra that two-thirds of my official suggestions and a still-ludicrous 80-plus p.c of the bets I like however in the end discuss myself out of. That is, once more, the place I warn you none of that is sustainable. Traces have tightened up throughout the league due to the proliferation of information accrued over the season. Unhealthy weeks are coming.

However we’ll go digging for truffles anyway, as a result of we’ve solely obtained 9 extra weeks of prop bets earlier than the season’s over. 10 for those who’re betting the Professional Bowl expertise occasions which, hey, no judgment right here (OK, some judgment). Listed below are this week’s official performs in daring.

Dalvin Cook dinner OVER 74.5 dashing yards. The Lions have the league’s Twenty fifth-ranked run protection. Cook dinner is aware of and loves this reality, as a result of he’s averaged a hair beneath 105 dashing yards per recreation towards Detroit in his profession on higher than six yards per carry.

Saquon Barkley UNDER 71.5 dashing yards. We hit this by the pores and skin of our tooth final Sunday and, since I’ve discovered nothing, return to it in Week 14. The Eagles don’t have a terrific run protection, nevertheless it’s a lot improved in current weeks. The 2 groups behind that unit within the DVOA rankings, Seattle and Detroit, allowed Barkley to hurry for 75 whole yards in two video games this fall.

Joe Burrow UNDER 16.5 dashing yards. No group within the NFL offers up fewer dashing yards to quarterbacks than the Browns. Lamar Jackson put up 59 towards them in Week 7. The opposite 11 passers they’ve confronted have mixed for 43 — and that features guys like Marcus Mariota (three yards) and Josh Allen (seven).

Darius Slayton OVER 48.5 receiving yards. Slayton’s betting totals stay low regardless of his standing as Daniel Jones’ huckleberry. He’s had at the least six targets in 5 of his final six video games and has averaged 76.3 receiving yards per contest over that stretch.

Garrett Wilson OVER 61.5 receiving yards. Wilson has 23 targets in two video games since Mike White took over at quarterback. He had 15 final week because the Jets tried to come back again from an early deficit towards the Vikings. Sunday’s recreation in Buffalo might comply with the identical script.

Final week: 7-1 (.875)
Season thus far: 59-29 (.670)

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